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Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Price fixing by way of renewable rebates...the damage to the market




Energy Efficiency Emerges as Strongest Cleantech Sector

My Chat with the Street's Most Powerful Investment Bankers

By Nick Hodge
Tuesday, July 6th, 2010

Let's face it...

The overall performance of renewable energy stocks has been terrible. The reason is price fixing on the part of the utilities. Contact your Justice Department and ask for an injunction against rebates from utilities.








At the Euromoney Renewable Energy Finance Forum - Wall Street last week, I sat and listened to a group of investment bankers quantify the difficulty, and point out where the best future investments will be.

Ray Wood of Credit Suisse showed just how bad it's been for our sector over the past two years and so far in 2010:







As you can see, clean equities have lost anywhere from 40% to 72% of their value over the past 24 months.

And market performance like that jams up the entire system.

Morgan Stanley's Kevin Genieser noted the private companies looking to pay off their early investors (private equity, venture capital, etc.) with initial public offering (IPO) proceeds have been met with stiff resistance:


Recent big ticket IPOs from A123 Systems (NASDAQ: AONE), Codexis (NASDAQ: CDXS), and Jinko Solar (NYSE: JKS) have all disappointed.

And that dismal performance sends ripples all the way down the chain.

If VCs and private equity fund managers don't see a profitable exit, they aren't going to lend money in the early rounds.

Throw in the utter lack of policy guidance in the United States (lack of a national Renewable Energy Standard (RES); no price on carbon) and you get what you've got now: everyone with much-needed capital refusing to play the game either 1) because everyone that has played recently has lost; or 2) because the rules aren't clear enough.

As the rest of the world races ahead, here are what the big banks say they're doing until the U.S. gets its act together...

Forget about supply

With the massive finds of shale gas in this country, every banker on the stage said they expect nat gas to remain well below $8.00/Mcf for the foreseeable future.

Gas that cheap translates into electricity at $0.05/kWh. That makes it tough for wind and solar to compete, even with subsidies.

And again, without an RES or a price on carbon, banks are really hesitant to lend to new clean energy supply projects; there are simply too many uncertainties.

But the one sector that has a proven payoff is efficiency. It doesn't matter how cheap natural gas goes... If you consume less electricity, you save more money.

Same goes for grid investments. Reducing grid congestion and inefficiencies can be profitable no matter the going cost of electricity, and it's a fundamental pillar for the introduction of more renewable capacity in the future.

Here's a chart Parker Weil of Bank of America-Merrill Lynch shows to illustrate our grid's shortcomings:




During the session, Parker went on to say that:

· Power transmissions have life spans of ~40 years that have already expired. Since the industry was deregulated, the grid new build maintenance expenditures have been reduced

· The North American power grid caters to 335 million customers

o The pillars of this complex network are just three independent systems (WECC, ERCOT, Eastern Interconnection)

o Any disruption in the 200,000-mile-long voltage lines can escalate through the system, resulting in massive power outage

o 50% – 60% of the electricity is lost in transmission due to faulty lines and obsolete infrastructure

o The current system does not identify exact location of power outages, so the authorities take calculated guesses

· Electricity production accounts for 40% of emissions in the U.S. and is the largest contributor to pollution

· There is pressure from power generated by renewable sources for which the grid has limited provisions

Given that world electricity demand has risen to 18.8 trillion kWh from 14.6 trillion kWh in 2000, and is expected to reach 35.2 trillion kWh by 2035... Bank of America believes the best investments it can make are in the area of efficiency.

It believes efficiency has the potential to reduce annual energy consumption 23% by 2020. And given all the current market variables, efficiency is the easiest to finance right now because it has the lowest up-front capital costs and the fastest payback:






This is why Bank of America — and several of the other panelists — see efficiency as the best short-term clean investment, and see investment in the sector hitting $216 billion in the next few years.

And they see a three-pronged approach to easy profits...

First, reduce demand by retrofitting homes, offices, and factories with efficient lighting, appliances, and HVAC systems.

Second, upgrade the distribution infrastructure.

Third, deploy smart meters to create a networked smart grid and advanced metering infrastructure.

I'll have more on steps two and three in coming weeks, but for now you need to focus more on the most immediate profit opportunity: reducing demand.

That's what the world's most profitable companies are doing to ensure their increased profitability. From McDonald's and Starbucks to Disney and Marriott... the goal is to reduce operating costs through efficiency.

They're optimizing their supply chains, using less cardboard and paper, doing less laundry, and — most important for us — swapping out all their old lighting systems.

Nothing saves energy — and money — like switching out the millions of lights these companies use.

Lucky for us, one company has been selected to do this for all the companies mentioned above — and many more.

It's a small engineering firm with a big lighting solution. The share price has already doubled as word gets out about its success but, as the Bank of America suggests, we're only in the early rounds of efficiency's dominance.

Call it like you see it,

Nick  Hodge

Nick

SOURCE

http://www.greenchipstocks.com/articles/efficiency-emergers-as-strongest-cleantech-sector/1026

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

China's Green Energy Boom

If last year was any indication of things to come, the cleantech scene
will once again be dominated by China this year.
Evidence of this trend is everywhere, from the amount of attention
given to Chinese cleantech initiatives by pundits to the stellar returns
China-based companies have been offering.
Chinese Solar Companies
Just look how Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) fared in 2009 compared to the
Dow Jones and U.S.-based First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR):












In plain speak: Chinese solar firms will be more profitable than companies based elsewhere.

What's more, several large European solar markets are set for subsidy-reductions this year. Beyond implying that the solar market is maturing, these subsidy reductions are also driving up demand as customers race to complete installations while there are still tax breaks or incentives available.

Most of that business is going to Chinese companies — even European solar producers that used to provide competition are now becoming customers.

And it's not just exports that are exploding; the domestic market is booming as well. Greentech Media reports that China currently has a solar capacity of 140 megawatts but could reach 1,400 megawatts by 2012. That implies 900% growth over the next three years.

Green Chip investors will be poised to reap the benefits. I've already begun preparing thousands of members for this coming windfall.

Chinese Wind Companies

Companies with exposure to the Chinese wind market have done just as well.

American Superconductor (NASDAQ: AMSC) has exclusive contracts with Sinovel, the largest turbine producer in China and fifth-largest in the world. Shenyang-based A-Power Generation Systems (NASDAQ: APWR) enjoyed a 300% year, and even earned a turbine contract for a farm based in Texas.

Both companies crushed the Dow Jones and even Vestas Wind Systems (COP: VWS), the largest turbine producer in the world. Take a peek:








American Superconductor 2009

There are about 20,000 MW of installed wind capacity in China right now. That number will double to 40,000 MW by 2011... and it'll grow 875% to 195,000 MW by 2020.

You'll want to get in sooner rather than later.

Chinese Smart Grid

Of course, with such rampant growth in their solar and wind industries, the Chinese will have to build out their smart grid, as well.

They won't be immune to the same problems were having here in the States, namely that the best renewable resources are located in sparsely populated areas.

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Duke Energy is already in talks with State Grid Corp. — China's largest distributor of electricity — to form a joint venture. State Grid would provide transmission solutions in the States and Duke would provide energy efficiency expertise in China.

Batteries are also a top priority in the Middle Kingdom as a means to store clean energy and use it when needed. Look what Hong Kong Highpower (NASDAQ: HPJ) did in the second half of the year, as lithium batteries caught on as a major investment theme:











Hong Kong Highpower 2009

China-based electric and hybrid vehicle maker BYD (HK: 1211) did even better. Readers that followed my advice and bought that stock late in 2008 are now up more than 500%.

And here's the best news of all: China recently passed a law requiring electricity distributors to purchase 100% of the renewable energy available. With that kind of law on the books, you can bet there will be a rush on renewable energy installations in the coming year.

In 2009, I was able to close 51 winning positions for members of my Alternative Energy Speculator... 20 of these were Chinese. Even more could come from China this year.

But you have to be a member to benefit. The four big winners discussed above — Trina, American Superconductor, A-Power Generation and Hong Kong Highpower — we're each recommended to my readers and sold for profit last year.

And I already have my eyes on this year's Chinese gems.


REFERENCES:
http://email.angelnexus.com/ct/3783561:5547246530:m:1:163432093:8285145DD1E8C67FC22D06BA8DD89B67

Sunday, January 3, 2010

WHY IS IT MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER TO ACT NOW TO INCREASE ENERGY EFFICIENCY?

WHY IS IT MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER TO ACT NOW TO INCREASE ENERGY EFFICIENCY?

The answers are as follows:

FEDERAL DIRECTIVE TO DRIVE HOME THE POINT

You were ordered to by U.S. President Obama to increase energy efficiency (See http://www.whitehouse.gov/assets/documents/2009fedleader_eo_rel.pdf). Why? The reason is the environment and because the President’s Energy Secretary, Dr. Steven Chu, thinks its “SEXY”. “People sometimes say energy efficiency and conservation are not sexy; they're low tech. That's actually not true. They can be very sexy and very high tech.” (See http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/energy/2009/03/19/steven-chu-obamas-point-man-on-energy-says-conservation-is-sexy.html).

NOTE: The term “energy conservation” was replaced by “energy efficiency” because in my humble opinion the latter is bad for the energy businesses. The same could be said about “energy waste reduction” which means government employees must act to mitigate the waste (See below).

STATE AND LOCAL LOANS MAKE IT EASIER THAN GOING TO THE BANK

As part of the Green Jobs/Green New York Act, NYSERDA (New York State Energy Research and Development Authority) is establishing revolving loans capped at $13,000 for residential and $26,000 for commercial properties, to target middle-class homeowners and small businesses looking to retrofit properties to save energy. Loans will be paid back from energy bill savings.

Finally, towns have formed a consortium to make homes and business more energy efficient and have applied for a $40 million competitive retrofitting grant from the Department of Energy. Each town has committed to apply 20 percent of the DOE grant to establish a revolving loan fund for constituents looking to make energy-efficiency improvements (a.k.a. Energy PACE Bonds). Colorado has had this program for nearly two years.


UTILITIES HELP THEMSELVES TO YOUR MONEY ALREADY

An obscure fee pays for efficient-energy projects, which mean you, have paid for the work to be performed (See http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/29/nyregion/29sbc.html?ref=nyregion). What are you waiting for go get your money back? How? Complete a feasibility project and ask for a rebate.

National Grid has a program that will pay $10,000 for a feasibility study which is the first step needed to determine which energy efficiency or renewable energy program is applicable. The grants are on a first come first serve basis and may not be extended into 2010 so get moving.

GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES

Heads-up government employees (i.e. Federal, State, or Local): you are obligated to energy waste reduction projects. It is the law. We in the private sector can call you on it.

ENVIRONMENT

Here something you should know about the environment: “Your carbon emissions are creating carbonic acids in the oceans and consequently all the shell fish and coral reefs will be dissolved by the year 2100, unless…” according to Stony Brook Southampton Professor Dr. Cindy Lee. Another professor discovered that when the oceans reach their CO2 saturation point they give off CO2, so Dr Lee was wrong: we will suffocate sooner!

Their research was indirectly funded by ExxonMobil, BP, among others. It is a people problem that can be solved.

CONCLUSION

This is not doomsday bull: just take a look at the Long Island sound. As a kid, I could snorkel in it and see up to six to ten feet. Now, it is a cesspool, at times, that needs help.

The following is not meant to be disparaging to the reader:

If two plus two equals four and you accept it, a psychologist will say you are normal.

If two plus two equals four and it makes you unhappy, you are considered neurotic.

If two plus two equals five, and you accept it you are consider psychotic.

The point is: make a responsible decision and accept what I am telling you and get involved with solving the problem. Go ahead and take the first step which is an energy efficiency feasibility study for the household or business by way of an independent energy conservation company like ITM Corp (For more information, please see www.greenspacepros.com).